bias library
Confirmation bias
You seek evidence that supports your position and discount what contradicts it.
Wason (1960) ran the foundational study. In crypto, the most expensive version is curating an X feed that only agrees with your bags. Information starts to filter itself before you even read it.
What it looks like in crypto
- ●You follow ten accounts who all hold what you hold. Your feed is an echo chamber dressed as research.
- ●You skim a bullish thread carefully and a bearish thread dismissively. The same skim, different attention budget.
- ●You search "[coin] is going up" but never "[coin] is overvalued". The query writes the answer.
- ●You discount any negative news as "old narrative", "media FUD", or "weak hands selling". Every observation has a counter-narrative ready before you read it.
Counter-moves
- Before every entry, run a five-minute devil-advocate pass. Write the three strongest arguments against the trade. If they do not shake you, you have at least confronted them.
- Follow two accounts who actively disagree with your positions. Read them weekly. Do not respond, just read.
- Search for the bearish case explicitly. Use the same query structure you use for the bullish case.
- Run a quarterly "what changed?" review. Note any new evidence — friendly or unfriendly — and revise the thesis or close the position.
Worth knowing
Confirmation bias is the lubricant of every other bias. Once you stop seeing the counter-evidence, every other distortion becomes invisible. The fix is structural: build the search for disconfirming evidence into your workflow, not into your willpower.
Academic foundation
Wason (1960). On the Failure to Eliminate Hypotheses in a Conceptual Task. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 12(3), 129–140.
Related biases
Curious which of these eight drives your trading the most?
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