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bias library

Loss aversion

A loss of $100 hurts roughly twice as much as a gain of $100 feels good.

Kahneman and Tversky measured it in 1979 and called the coefficient roughly 2.25. Two-to-one. Most retail traders carry this multiplier without realising it — and it warps every decision once a position is open.

What it looks like in crypto

  • You hold a coin down 40% because closing it would "make the loss real". Holding feels neutral; selling feels painful. The pain bias keeps the bag.
  • You stop checking your portfolio in red weeks. Behavioural finance calls this the ostrich effect — a direct child of loss aversion. The position keeps bleeding; you keep not looking.
  • After a drawdown, your next entries are tiny. Risk feels much heavier than reward, so you under-size. You then miss the recovery.
  • You set a mental stop but never write it down. When the price hits, you "give it room". The pain of executing the stop overrides the rule.
Counter-moves
  1. Write your stop level in plain text BEFORE entry. Keep it in a note you re-read once a week.
  2. Set a price alert at your stop. Force yourself to look. Decisions made by surprise are decisions made by emotion.
  3. Treat every open position as if it belonged to someone else. Would you advise them to hold at today's price?
  4. Schedule a monthly review where you look at every position, in green or red. The avoidance ritual is what compounds the damage.

Worth knowing

Loss aversion is not a flaw to fix — it's a setting you can compensate for. The traders who outperform have not eliminated it; they have built rules that fire before emotion does.

Academic foundation

Kahneman & Tversky (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263–291.

Related biases

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